Fantasy football sucks. I used to spend hours analyzing spreadsheets and trying to identify trends and hoping for that one little nugget that would net me 3 more points on game day. Then I’d get beat by some idiot who forgot to put a kicker in his starting lineup because he got 27 points out of a player that I wouldn’t even allow on my team. It doesn’t matter how much time and effort you put into fantasy football; the end result is often a matter of luck. There are just too many unquantifiable factors. What can you do? Well, if you’re me, you try to quantify them. Usually it doesn’t work out. I think this one worked out pretty well.
I’m calling It YATA: Yards Against the Average. It shows how well a defense performs by indicating the percentage of an opponent’s average that they allow. In hindsight, I should have used total points instead of just yards, but I was nearly finished by the time that occurred to me. So that will be a project for another day.
Example: You have two quarterbacks on your roster, QB1 – who is playing against Kansas City – and QB2 – who is playing against Cincinnati. Both score about the same amount of points every week, passing for around 250 yards per game each. The traditional way to choose a starter in this instance is to see which player is going up against the weaker pass defense. Kansas City ranks 3rd against the pass, Cincinnati ranks 9th and has allowed 156 more passing yards. So you go with QB2, because he has the better match up. On Sunday, QB1 gains 250 passing yards. QB2 only gains 217 passing yards, costing you 2 points in a game that you lost by 1.
Had you used YATA, you would have won the game. While KC appeared to have the better pass defense on the surface, the reality is that half of their opponents have had passing offenses ranked in the league’s 10 worst – two are in the bottom 4. Cincinnati, on the other hand, has played only one of the bottom 10 passing offenses and has also played 2 of the ten best. Essentially, YATA is a complicated means of putting a number to the “Yeah, but they haven’t played anybody” argument.
Here is the complete YATA ranking through Week 6:
1. Houston 61.3
2. Cleveland 83.3
3. Pittsburgh 83.4
4. San Francisco 85.5
5. Cincinnati 86.3
6. Jacksonville 87.2
7. New Orleans 94.2
8. New England 94.7
9. New York Jets 96.2
10. Indianapolis 96.7
T-11. Oakland 97.3
T-11. Baltimore 97.3
13. Seattle 97.5
T-14. Kansas City 97.6
T-14. St. Louis 97.6
16. Tennessee 98.2
17. Chicago 99.5
18. New York Giants 100.6
T-19. Carolina 102.6
T-19. Tampa Bay 102.6
21. Detroit 105.2
T-22. Miami 110.0
T-22. Atlanta 110.0
24. Arizona 111.3
25. Dallas 114.3
26. Minnesota 114.6
27. Philadelphia 115.8
28. Washington 121.6
29. Buffalo 121.8
30. Green Bay 122.4
31. San Diego 127.0
32. Denver 139.5
The number after each team indicates the percentage of yards each team allows compared to their opponents’ averages. The higher a team’s YATA, the better a quarterback is likely to fare against that team. A quarterback who averages 250 yards per game will likely throw for around 244 yards (97.6% of 250) against Kansas City. That same quarterback – or one with a similar average – will likely throw for around 216 yards (86.3% of 250) against Cincinnati.
So tomorrow when you’re setting up your lineups, consider the YATA when choosing a quarterback.
This could potentially also be applied to all positions in fantasy football, including kickers and team defenses, but it would require a little more research. At any rate, good luck in your match-ups this week, unless you’re playing me.
/michael
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